Morbidity compression: Description

The thesis formulated by James Fries of morbidity compression postulates that the length of the periods that people spend in a state of chronic illness and disability decreases over time, i.e. healthy life time is gained. According to Fries, the reasons for this development lie in a general improvement in living conditions, but also in an increase in health-promoting behavior and improved prevention.

This rather optimistic view stands in contrast to the expansion thesis as early as 1977. Grünberg assumes that, as a side effect of medical progress, the time people spend in a state of illness and disability will increase. Accordingly, the periods of suffering will become longer and healthcare costs will rise considerably over time.

A middle way was proposed by Manton in 1982 under the term dynamic equilibrium was formulated by Manton in 1982. According to this, life expectancy and periods of illness and disability will increase, but advances in medicine will reduce the associated suffering. People with illnesses would therefore retain their everyday abilities and quality of life despite their illness, so that they can actively participate in life.

As part of the project "Morbidity compression and its alternatives", the three concepts are being examined for their suitability to explain the development of morbidity. We are looking at common diseases (heart attack, stroke, type 2 diabetes and lung cancer) as well as functional limitations and multimorbidity in order to arrive at a more comprehensive assessment in the long term. At the same time, we apply the research findings to practical issues, such as the length of working life or the future focus of medical care.